History Rhymes: The End of the Cycle Comes Into Focus
The pandemic and subsequent subsidy programs contributed to a record surge in freight demand through 2021 as consumers remained stuck at home. That freight surge, amid driver and equipment supply constraints, lead to record-level freight rates and fleet profits that continued into early 2022. Fading freight-friendly economic tailwinds and easing supply constraints were expected in 2022. Assists from Russia, a late to the party Federal Reserve, and lingering pandemic ripples have boosted inflation to a forty-year high and inverted the yield spread to a forty-year low. Within the context of these events, we will examine the “it’s different this time” factors that will help to ease the pain of those in or adjacent to the transportation industry.
Kenny Vieth, President & Senior Analyst
After graduating from Southern Illinois University, Vieth spent six years in city government and education before joining ACT Research in 1991. Vieth became a partner in 2000 and was named President in 2010. Kenny oversees commercial vehicle analysis and forecasting at ACT. In his capacity as the principal heavy vehicle market analyst, Vieth has become an advisor to OEMs, suppliers, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve, for whom he is a frequent contributor to the Beige Book report.
In 2008, Vieth cemented a partnership with China’s State Information Center to provide forecasts to Western companies interested in understanding commercial vehicle demand trends in China.